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Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics expresses results as the probability that a variant is better, updated as data arrives.

Written by Reflective Data experts · updated Oct 5, 2026

Instead of a p-value, you get statements like “there is a 95 percent chance the variant beats control”. It starts with a prior belief and updates it with the evidence.

Many people find the output easier to interpret, but it still needs care: priors, stopping rules and decision thresholds matter.

related

Frequentist statisticsP-valueStatistical significance

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